Tuesday, 09:12 — the letter lands. Your largest resin supplier moves list price, effective in thirty days.
Negotiate — or accept it?
Four live choices. One answer owed.
The situation: at 09:12 a letter lands — the largest resin supplier raises list price 12%, effective in 30 days. It touches 46 crore of annual spend, costs 2.1 margin points if accepted, and the contract's challenge window closes in 21 days. Negotiate — or accept it?
The map: the +12% trigger links to six numbers — spend exposure, margin impact, the 21-day review clause, two qualified alternates at +4% and +6%, switching cost of 0.8 crore over 60 days, five weeks of inventory cover — and four live choices: negotiate, move volume, qualify a third source, accept. One graph resolves them together.
03 · The playbook
The rules & judgment, written down.
This is judgment your best people already carry. Written into the decision, it works on every letter — not just the ones they happen to see.
04 · The call
Twenty-nine days to spare.
Counter at +5% inside the review window — the benchmark and your alternates make it credible.
Move 20% of volume to the first alternate now — leverage the supplier can see, not just hear.
Extend inventory cover to 8 weeks before talks open.
Open qualification on a third source — for next year's letter, not this one.
+12% became +4.8%
The call, confidence 88: counter at +5% inside the review window; move 20% of volume to the first alternate now; extend inventory cover to 8 weeks; open qualification on a third source. Resolved — +12% became +4.8%.
05 · After the call
The decision leaves the room.
Procurement lead sends the counter — +5%, with the benchmark pack attached.
Planner places the alternate purchase orders; cover lifted to 8 weeks.
Category manager opens third-source qualification for next year's letter.
Landed cost tracked weekly against plan. Learned: this supplier moves when volume visibly moves.
Illustrative follow-through · scenario data
Is this your decision — or close to it?