Sales
"Hold the price — we'll lose the retail chains."
Ontology-driven decision intelligence
THE MEETING IS OVER.
Decisome is the decision engine for cost shocks. It weighs your whole business — margins, suppliers, customers, brand — and hands you the call. With reasons, not opinions.
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9:02 a.m. — aluminium jumps. The metal in every beverage can you make.
09:02Every beverage can you ship just got costlier. All of them.
09:06Margin on the flagship line: −7 points by Friday.
09:15The quarter's plan is dead on arrival. The meeting is called.
Absorb the price increase or Pass cost to customer?
Six smart people are about to disagree.
01 · The shockScenario · Beverage cans
Follow the argument ↓
The meeting: Sales says hold the price. Finance says raise six percent. Procurement says switch smelters. Operations says keep fill volume. Brand says don't cheapen the cans. The CEO says margin stays above eleven percent. The meeting has no natural end.
03 · The truth
Everyone is right — locally.
Each answer is correct inside its own silo.
But the business doesn't live in silos: price moves demand, demand moves volume, volume moves supplier terms, terms move margin.
The right call only exists in the whole picture.
The whole picture.
04 · The mapFactors linked 00/17
Decision anatomy · live graphDecisome ontology
Decisome links seventeen factors — smelters, fill-volume spec, prices, margins, volumes, inventory, hedging, budgets, competitors, market readiness and brand constraints — into one graph that resolves the question: absorb the aluminium cost or pass it on.
05 · The playbook
Your company knowledge, written down.
R1A small rise the chains can absorb beats a quarter of lost margin — move early, explain it once.
R2Never shrink the can to save the can. Fill volume is a brand promise, not a cost lever.
R3When a commodity spikes, hedge a floor first — then negotiate with the clock stopped.
R4No single-source input: keep a qualified alternate warm before you need it.
06 · The call
Forty-one minutes later.
Every recommendation ships with its reasoning. Challenge any line — the graph shows its work.
01
Raise the price per can by 4¢ — the chains absorb it, direct customers won't blink.
Market readiness // HighCompetitor & demand
02
Move 20% of volume to the first alternate now.
Qualified alternatesSwitching lead · 60 days
03
Hedge 40% of Q3 aluminium at today's rate.
Hedging windowDiscretionary budgetTime · 4 weeks
04
Qualify the recycled-alloy smelter for 15% of volume.
Recycled-alloy smelterSupplier allocation switchTime · 6 weeks
Factors: 17 // Edges: 18
Resolved —
11.4% margin held
11.4% margin held
07 · The follow-through
Decisome prepares, you decide.
You approved the 4¢ — the first deadline is tomorrow
PR-2412 · Can price +4¢, retail and distributor
next action: tomorrowThe new price starts on 1 November. But six other dates come first. Here they are, with the work for each one already done.
3 AugPassed
Legal
A notice window already closed
Eighteen contracts needed 90 days' notice. That date has passed. They take the increase later instead.
2 SepTomorrow
Retail accounts
Send the letters to 22 chains
These chains need 60 days' notice. The letters are written and ready. If they don't go tomorrow, 1 November slips for a third of the business.
19 SepIn 18 days
Packaging
Order the printed packs
Three packs have the price printed on them. Printing takes six weeks. Once you order, the shelf price is set — so the shelf-price question has to be answered now, not in November.
No going back once ordered26 SepIn 25 days
Trade marketing
Last day to change two promotions
At the new price, two promotions cost more than they earn. Both chains lock their December plans on this date. After that, the promotions run as agreed.
The retailer locks this, not you1 OctIn 30 days
Distributors
Send distributors the new price
They get 30 days to reprice the stock they hold and decide how much to buy early. Written, dated, not sent.
15 OctIn 44 days
Supply chain
Make extra stock for the early buying
Distributors always buy heavily just before an increase. Last time's numbers show how much. Cans and warehouse space are held for those two weeks.
31 Oct23:59
Systems
Switch every system together
Retailer files, distributor catalogues, sales handhelds and the online store all change at midnight. If one changes early, customers see two prices.
1 NovStarts
Pricing
The new price reaches the shelf
4¢ a can. 96¢ a case of 24. Across 1,240 products, in both price books.
14 Dec — 1 MarSecond round
Legal
The 18 late contracts
Each one moves on the earliest date its contract allows. The letters are written and waiting. Two batches to manage, not eighteen.
Nothing has been sent yet. Release tonight and tomorrow's letters go out in time. Everything after that is already dated.
Illustrative follow-through · scenario data
08 · The compounding
Every call teaches the next one.
Outcomes flow back into the graph. The next shock starts from everything this one taught it — your judgment, compounding like interest.
09 · The alternatives
The Decisome difference.
The dashboard
Knows everything. Decides nothing. The argument starts exactly where the charts end.
The consultants
Decide in twelve weeks. Invoice in six. Gone before the outcome lands.
The gut
Fast, free, and fifty-fifty. Great odds — for a coin.
Decisome The difference
Decides with you — in minutes, on your numbers, with the receipts attached. And it gets sharper with every call it makes.
Bring us a decision
BRING US YOUR TOUGHEST DECISION.
A 30-minute session: we map it live, weigh it, and hand you the call. If it doesn't change your mind, it cost you half an hour.
Bring Us a Decision30 minutes · your toughest call · the full reasoning